NFL Network

I am a little disappointed in CBS and NBC for agreeing to show the Pats game on Saturday, which was originally scheduled to air exclusively on the NFL Network (I use bold to show reverence, of course). I don't understand why the networks would give in to THE NETWORK and let the NFL off the hook. The fans were angry that they didn't get to see the Pats go for purrrrfect, well looks like the NFL screwed the pooch. But no, CBS and NBC are terrified of looking like the bad guy, when it is the NFL who moves MNF to cable and fails to actively engage the cable companies to get THE NETWORK into all those cable viewing homes. I do have to --- watch out here --- commend some of the cable companies for not giving in and including THE NETWORK on the basic cable packages of subscribers. If I have cable, which I don't, I would probably be willing to pay for THE NETWORK, but I don't think it is fair to have non-interested subscribers paying (not a small) amount for this channel. I understand that the same argument could be made for most cable channels, but I think it is a matter of degree given the specialization of THE NETWORK and the cost per subscriber per month proposed by the NFL. But in the end, I know the cable companies are trying to hold out to get their cut too -- especially the local provider here in Madison.

On the game side of things, I think the pats will finish 16-0 and fall in the Championship or Super Bowl... but maybe I'm just hoping here. Go Pack! Go Colts!

Pot Limit Win

I won a 49 player PL tournament last night on bodog. It was a 15+1 with 9 spots in the money. The tournamnet followed normal bodog structure and started with a 1,500 stack. The stack size doesn't seem to be that big of a deal in these tourneys until you hit level 6 (start of the second hour). By level 8-9 the game should become much more push oriented, but per chance last evening it didn't. The field was remarkably passive, sans on hyper aggresor sitting two to my right through the whole tourney. I eventually picked him off at the final table with KK vs. AQs. I was involved in very few big pots and therefore was able to stay around average stack until the final table. The KK hand I mentioned was what put me in the chip lead with $18K and the blinds at 400/800 with a 100 ante and seven players left. This shows that my chip leading stack was quite small with respect to the blinds, but I guess this should be expected with a passive field an only 1,500 starting chips. I was able to pick off four of the last five villians -- most with easy calls (TPTK or better). Overall, it was nice to win a tourney for the first time in quite a while.

Cheers.

The Steroid Era

I still have not completely resolved how to treat this whole steroid era thing, or the Mitchell report, but I have decided that this report in conjunction with the media's treatment of Eric Mangini of the Jets are both testament to our continued anti-whistleblower attitude in society. Or should I say the "stop snitching" attitude. I know that there are a vast array of issues and forces weighing on any individual regarding loyalty, duty and personal self preservation in these decisions... but it seems to me that the same media that gets frustrated by the lack of willingness to report crime are the same ones that go after anyone that breaks "unwritten codes." I'm not sure how to thoroughly weigh the competing forces, but I do know that it is annoying to have these conflicting values being promoted in the media.

Oh well...

Blame the media, right?

Poker for the kiddies...

An interesting piece in the NYT yesterday highlighted a new group being founded at Harvard Law, which focuses on promoting poker as an educational tool.

A Harvard Law School professor and a group of his students formed an organization this fall — the Global Poker Strategic Thinking Society — dedicated to demonstrating that poker has educational benefits. They argue that the game, which is probability-based and requires risk assessment, situational analysis and a gift for reading people, can be an effective teaching tool, whether for middle school math or in business and law classes.

I'm not totally convinced that promoting poker for middle school math learning is a positive expected value for the game as a whole, but I do appreciate a group working to show that this is not exclusively a game for degenerate gamblers. The variety of situations faced in a game are virtually endless and the number of decision points involved allow for a relatively fast learning environment. The value of poker for grad level students is not in doubt to me and it may be that younger kids can take a lesson from the game as well -- but it probably shouldn't be in the same form they see on TV. In addition, if poker is to be used as an educational tool -- it must include more than just NL Texas Hold'em. An exploration into Limit Hold'em may be the best spot to gain interest and keep math as the center focus... NL tends to involve much more reading of people and understanding implied odds and other factors.

Also, if any grad students want to learn how to play... I'd be glad to teach you. (Bring $50).

Young to Twins, Cordero to close for Cincy

Delmon Young was moved by the Devil (sic) Rays for Garza from the Twins. This likely will not be the biggest move of the offseason for the Twins as they seek to move Nathan and Santanna prior to the start of 2008 as well. If I were a Twins fan, I would have to be pretty frustrated. The Twinkies have turned into the 2000's version of the '90's expos... only actually making the playoffs. Producing talent in the organization that a fan gets to fall in love with, only to watch it sold off for more young talent is frustrating. I'm not sure what the best method is to address these profit seeking firesales... but they are not good for the game.

In other news, my beloved Commies (i.e. Reds) in the NL Central have went and got themselves a real deal closer through free agent Francisco Cordero. If my math is correct they are paying $11.5 million per year for Cordero, which equates to between $287-$500K per save (if he gets 23-40). I know that is just going rate, but it seems a bit high for me... Especially given the fact that the Reds can't anticipate being in that many important close games next year, can they?

In shameful news, La Russa was found guilty of a DWI/OWI/DUI offense stemming from an incident last spring. This isn't a proud badge to wear for such an articulate and kind man.


Fantasy Football Update:
I pulled off a 123-122.5 victory this past weekend. This was mostly do to Kolby Smith blowing up for 150 yards this past weekend, and thus has earned a starting spot on the Badger Hunds for this weekend's matchup versus the California Kats. Both teams come in with an 8-4 record and are tied for the divisional lead with two games remaining. The trouble for me will likely come from the Brady factor, but hopefully my newly acquired P. Manning will produce to a competitive level with Tommy boy. My defense matches up well, but the Kats also feature Ray Lewis who has been blowing up the tackles the past few weeks. With only two games left, this is the divisional championship -- Unless I win - splitting the season series, and then lose the last week when the Kats win. In that case the tiebreaker would go to the team with the most points scored, which at the moment the Badger Hunds are -60 behind the Kats. Have a good fantasy weekend.

Can a fourth stringer pull off a hundred yard day?

In possibly my biggest risk of the season, I'm starting Kolby Smith of the KC Chiefs this week in fantasy football. This was necessary after I lost Jacobs of the Giants last week. Manning, who I traded for two weeks ago, has now successfully put up a goose egg followed by an 18 point performance. Not what I needed. I am also gambling with starting Hackett from Seattle.

I am currently second in my division and only one game behind the division leader (who is stuck 60 points going into this afternoon - but who has Brady)so today is a huge game. I am playing the third place team in my division who is only 1.5 games back of me. I lead 28.5 to 20 going into this afternoon.



Hope you have a wonderful fantasy Sunday.

The Axe is ours...

The 'Sconsin Badgers took home Paul Bunyon's axe for the third straight year by beating the Golden Golphers this afternoon. Zach Brown looked marvelous.. but of course I could probably pick up a hundred yards against that D. It looks like we should be headed to the Outback bowl, but with Michigan in the mix - we may get shoved down to the Alamo Bowl or Champs Sports Bowl. The Champ Sports Bowl? this is just silly.

I have to applaud Ron Zook and his Fighting Illini for being the coach and team of the Big Ten this year.

Now it's on to the basketball season, were I will once again struggle with rooting against my native and alma mater Hoosiers... Should be fun to watch.

Big Ten Football

Well, it looks like my streak of predicting a loss for the home team continues to assure victory. (the 38-22 TOP was huge for the Badgers). go bucky! In other news, the Illini keep showing that the spread offense is a great equalizer as they got the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers loss devasted me, since I was predicting an 8-4 season.

Did anyone see the Navy game? That must have been one of the most ridiculous games in history to watch.

Badgers vs. Wolverines...

It appears that the honeymoon period for Mr. Bielema is coming to a close as the Badgers head into a home game against Michigan this weekend. The likelihood of victory is significantly lowered with stud running back P.J. Hill out with a leg injury. The good news for the Badgers is that, being a home game, Lance Smith, the back-up running back who can’t travel, will be available. The youngster Zach Brown will also get a chance to show himself. The Badgers will need to be successful moving the football on offense to keep the time of possession as close to in their favor as possible. This will mean that the Tyler Donovan led offense cannot afford the turnovers and three and outs of recent weeks. If Michigan keeps the ball in their hands for more than 36-40 minutes, the Badger defense will eventually breakdown and give up some big plays. The problem here for the Badgers is that Michigan is very capable of holding onto the football for long stretches via pounding it down the field with Mike Hart. Wisconsin’s hopes are with the offense taking care of the ball and making a big play or three and the defense holding the line and creating a turnover or two. This does not look good for the Badgers in Madison on Senior Day. Michigan 28 – Wisconsin 17.

Job Cuts in Poker?

The NY Times Business section today has a piece on job cuts in the poker industry. I have often wondered if this type of technology, which effectively eliminates dealers, would become the new big thing. I doubt it will catch on incrediably quickly because the old timers will keep an outcry against it for sometime, but the idea of getting 46 hands per hour will undoubtably be alluring for a number of gamblers as well as owners. We shall see, but in many ways this is the logical progression of increased productivity, online gaming, and techological advances. I hope this doesn't take effect anytime soon, because I have friends in the industry. I also just love playing with real chips and cards. I mean, how am I going to justify losing without a dealer to blame, or how can I throw my cards down in disgust when I have no cards?

Stop.... HAMMER TIME!

One of my favorite poker stories... (it's not a bad beat... or at least for me)

Setting: Treasure Island Poker Room
Game: 9 handed Two-Four Limit Hold’em
My Stack: $80?
My Position: middle -- 4th preflop action

Under the Gun (UTG) folds, UTG+1 calls, Old Lady Villian makes it 4, Donkey makes it 6, fold, fold, button calls, small folds, big blind calls. 5 to the flop with $31 pre drop in the pot.

Flop comes Qd 5h 9s. big blind checks, UTG+1 checks, OL Villian bets 2, Donkey makes it 4, button calls, big blind folds, UTG+1 folds, OL Villian calls. 3 to the turn with $43 pre drop.

Turn comes 3h. OLV bets 4, Donkey makes it 8, button folds, OLV calls. 2 to the river $59 pre drop (after drop -- Boofer would it be $55 or $56?)

River comes 8s. OLV checks, Donkey bets 4, Pot is now $59-$63 with $4 to call – OLV lays down saying she had a good queen. Donkey calls over friend to show him that he has successfully bluffed a huge pot in 2/4 with THE HAMMER – 2/7 offsuit... I love poker.

The newest baseball curse...

The week long layoff leading up to the World Series. Given that this year's should be considered less of a suprise (at least to Las Vegas), this makes two successive teams falling who had marched through the LCS in the minimum 4 only to have to wait a week to play again. The Rockies attempted to run some simulated games during this time to stay fresh, but they must have been simulating losing them if it worked... Cause they are getting spanked in a manner that is illegal in public in at least 5 states.

The real question is what do we call this curse?

The Tawdry Tiger?
The Detroit Diaspora?
The RockyTop Stop and Drop?
The Curse of the Sweep?

The Sox Sock/Rock the Rox...

The Rockies bounced back well after their game one meltdown, but it wasn't enough. The Rockies pitching and defense looked good, but there was no offensive spark. The maxim that sometimes "the best defense, is a good offense" has not taken effect with Colorado in the Series (or the last 10 or so games). I also find it nuts that a team could finish the year 21-5 and get swept in the World Series... I'm still reeling from that run the Rockies put together to get here.

I have decided that an expose on why I hate the designated hitter is in order...
just not today.

Sox and the Rox

I chose to use an alternative abbreviation for the Rockies, in honor of and in comparison to a high school team from near my hometown: Da Jug Rox.... I think the Rox (of Colorado) may be considered about as much of an underdog as the Rox (of Southern IN fame) were in every sporting contest in which they participated. Honestly, how are the Red Sox the prohibitive favorite? I get that they should probably be considered likely to win given their greater depth in pitching and overall higher level of experience and arguably talent -- but somehow the Sox are getting odds that seem a bit tilted. I guess it could be the "Notre Dame effect," which holds that in the three or four days from the time a line is released the line will move unfavorably with respect to Notre Dame due to the large amount of blind follower fans who place inordinately large wagers on their team. I have no idea if this is a true statement, but I do know that betting against ND has been profitable for me.

I don't think the momentum has worn off with the break (I don't really know if I believe in momentum across games?), but even if it has - Colorado won 21 of 22, which isn't something done on mojo alone... This team can flat out play with anyone and I think underestimating their ability to do all the small things that win games is a little presumptuous. It will be fun to watch and I'm willing to bet every game has more than 7 runs scored. GO NL! beat those little brat brothers. I'll take the Rox over the Sox in 6. I'll also take a snowstorm in game 5.

Online poker scandal

I highly doubt anyone has missed the biggest online poker scandal in recent history, if not ever. As mentioned in the Freakonomics post, I sincerely hope that if there was an employee within Absolute who blew the whistle by supplying the necessary data to the public that they are congratulated and commended by the poker player community. I have been oft quoted as saying that there is no institutional interest in cheating by online poker sites. This does not, however, account for what appears to have been the likely case here – an individual with inside information using it for evil. A hearty well done goes out to the folks over at 2+2 forums for putting together one of the most intensive collaborative online detective jobs ever seen outside of the conspiracy theorists sites. A call to arms for all online players: Vote with your virtual dollars and move to a more reputable site.

Of personal poker note, I will get a chance to play live in a couple weeks when I return to Evansville IN for a weekend getaway. I cut my teeth playing 5/10 Limit at Aztar and I’m really hoping they still offer it. I hope to prove I can still play limit hold’em halfway correctly. I still remember how good I thought I was the first couple of times I walked with a two-bill profit. I also remember being so tight that I would fold pocket 6’s or 7’s in the cut-off position with nobody else in the pot in front of me... Now I don’t know if I could throw out a raise quick enough.

BCS or BSCS???

Everybody knows we need a playoff in NCAA football, but could the whirlwind that left Ohio State University (intentional omission of the) a completely untested, young Big Ten team numero uno even be serious? South Florida followed by Boston College? Not to belittle the "non-traditional" football schools, but come on folks - the BCS rankings just don't hunt. Give me a 12-16 team playoff and let's have a fun December. I know it's all about the dollars, right?

Dusty Baker heads up the Reds

So it looks like the Reds went and got themselves a new manager. We will see if Dusty can turn around what is the most sad franchise in the NL Central, which probably means in all of baseball. I remember when I was younger, I had a friend [who will go unnamed] who used to try and convince me that the Reds were just as or more prestigious than the St. Louis Cardinals. That argument never held water with me, but now it is unquestionably false. Playoff appearances since 2000: STL-6, CIN - 0....

MLB on TV, Unless you don't have cable, like me.

In the case that you are part of the minority of Americans sans cable, I thought you might like to know that the Major League Baseball playoffs are upon on us. In fact, they are zipping right by with a total of 13 games needed (minimum +1) to get through the Divisional Series.* The end result of these four Divisional Series nearly mirrored my desired outcome. This is of course excluding the Red Sox beating the Angels, who are appropriately named “Evil Empire Lite” by my good friend Mel-Anon. This being said, it is hard to say that rooting for the Angels and Moreno’s Evil Empire Lite: West Coast Edition could be considered fun from a passionate purveyor of parity – as I tend to be.

In conjunction with Mr. Anon’s post on this subject, I would have to agree that it looks like the Colorado Rockies should be the favorite in the NLCS. After a sluggish outing by Webb last night, the Snakes have an uphill climb. I think they may make it fun to watch (if you have cable) but, I think the Rockies will be, pardon my biblical reference, David of the NL this year. Rox in five. The David role is what NL teams get to play in the World Series, at least from a betting line standpoint. I do believe the only two favorites from the NL going into the Series in the past decade were the Cards in ’04 (oh lordy, what a no show that was) and the Diamondbacks, with Schilling and Johnson in 2001 (by a scant –115 over the Yanks).

The real question at hand is to whom the role of Goliath falls. Though I hope, and wagered, on the Indians triumphing – their bullpen must outperform its regular season effort to be competitive. I do like Cleveland’s defense, contact hitting, and overall clutch performance. The front side of their rotation with Carmona and Sabathia is powerful in a seven game set. The Sox counter with a very powerful line-up and a solid rotation. I still think Beckett is overrated, but it is hard to downplay his previous playoff success. Overall, I think the intangibles lie with the Indians. They get to have it out with David after beating EEL in seven.

The World Series... Well it’s too early to start prognosticating, but if the Rockies make it and are a huge dog – you can bet that I’ll bet on them.

* I had to look into the appropriate plural form of series, and in fact it is series. If it is referring to a single series of events, it takes a singular verb. Correspondingly, if it is referring to more than one series of events, it takes a plural verb.

Vicariously I live while the Cubbies die...

I have to admit a bit of glee did become me this past week as the Cubs slouched away into the fall wearing the playoff collar. Hah! I recognize this lack of performance does reflect poorly on my team, since the Cubs are the champions - take note of the lower case c - of the Central. Alas, this argument just doesn't matter because the Cubs are simply impossible to support (even tacitly). Go Cards!

I have also enjoyed watching the Yanks, Angels, and Phils lose. It's going well right now for me in the playoffs, but let's see if the Cleveland vs. Colorado world series can't happen to help keep the ratings nerds on edge. go Indians! (Full Disclosure: I have a wager at 2:1 on the Indians to beat the Red Sox).

In other sports news, the Badgers got flat out beat by the Illini. They are off to Penn St. this weekend, where we will hopefully not need to break Paterno's leg to pull one out. (You have to be wondering how many 'break a leg's' are being said in Happy Valley this week). Bucky also lost Luke Swan for the year, which is one of the more disappointing things in sports this fall. This kid just has guts, a walk on who clawed his way into a starting scholarship slot position and then as a senior a captain is out with a torn hammy. Little tikes should take heed and stretch well prior to full physical exertion.

Another huge disappointment this past weekend was the Pack, their failure to protect the football and to make a stand when they needed it was disenchanting. I guess it is important that they let us Cheeseheads down early from that 4-0 start. The good news is they have enough fluff (and play in the NFC) that they should still be locked up for a playoff run. That is both exciting and probably excoriating for me, as I will endure a number of "memories" of that one time when Favre took'em to the house. I love football.

I will try to include some poker stuff in my next CardsDonkey post, but for now... DonkOut.